Week Three… a new system and newfound arrogance. A bit of Horatio Alger in me these days, set up flawlessly for a violent fall from grace. Here comes a patented Rosolio 4-12 special!

BALTIMORE -13 over Cleveland

I’m not sure what the excuse will be this week if the Browns score more than 20 points, or score at all for that matter. But the Ravens – wow, this is weird to write – are the second best offense in the league. Oh and the Cleveland fans are learning what they knew so well in New York: the Belichick way only works if you’re Belichick.

Green Bay -6.5 over ST. LOUIS

There isn’t a compelling reason to take the Rams ever. Wait, they covered last weekend…and I took them. The Pack are trying to bounce back after getting embarrassed by Ochocinco’s Lambeau Leap. By the way, it took a good seventy plays before TV executives started tiling out the Green Bay fan’s bird. The Rams suck.

NY Giants –6.5 over TAMPA BAY

Kind of a similar deal as above: a really good team against a really bad one. There are very few mediocre teams in the league these days, which gives you a lot of these kinda games. I don’t see a way that the Bucs can beat the G-men or even keep it moderately close. Does anyone else think that whoever is coach the Bucs always looks like he’s on vacation? Like he won the Monopoly game and gets to coach an NFL franchise for 2-3 years?

PHILADELPHIA over Kansas City

Whoa, weird and wonky line! Kevin Kolb vs Matt Cassel. This has trap written all over it. Secretly, the Eagles might not be any good. But the Chiefs are open about their badness. Do you stand for goodness or badness? “I want to be good,” says Todd Haley. “Well you’re not,” says Smails. “How about a Fresca?”

Tennessee +3 over NY JETS

Yeah, I’m a believer. Rex Ryan has turned the Jets into the Ravens from last year. They’re just ridiculously tough and mean. Darrelle Revis is ridiculous. But… they’re 2-0 against teams that can’t run inside. That’s all Tennessee can do. Plus, if they lose this week, their season’s over. I’ll take desperation.

DETROIT +6.5 over Washington

This has become the upset lock of the year out on the internets, and that’s as good as any of a reason to go the other way. But the Redskins have scored one touchdown this season and couldn’t score any at home against the Rams. The one thing you know you’ll get from the Lions is one 60 yard Calvin Johnson tuddy. The Redskins, ladies and gentlemen, are about to descend into the record books. Zorn is fired on Tuesday.

HOUSTON –3.5 over Jacksonville

The Jaguars are another one of these reliably terrible teams. Houston is middle of the pack. That’s enough for me. It’s remarkable that Jack Del Rio still has a job, isn’t it? His team quit on him five seasons of Survivor ago.

Atlanta +4 over NEW ENGLAND

This smells of a trap game. Vegas is hoping everyone takes the points and then midway through the third quarter when it’s ninety to nothing we all feel stupid. Guess what, kids? Tom Brady hasn’t been the same since the Giants beat the hell out of him in the Super Bowl a few years ago. And there’s no one on that defense that can stop the Falcons’ O. Note to Michael Turner owners: trade him immediately after this game.

San Francisco +7 over MINNESOTA

The Vikes beat Cleveland and Detroit… this year, not in the fifties. It’s an awful lot of points to give a badass defense. And the Niners are Bad. Ass. I read this story about Singletary having them meet in March before OTAs to carry sandbags across football fields one yard at a time. Meanwhile in Minny, Brad Childress was doing Steve Hutchinson’s laundry. Up! Set!

BUFFALO +6 over New Orleans

Wow, I can’t believe I’m doing this one. This is a System pick. I hate myself for doing this. Damn it. Nothing can stop me. Oh well, just rub some dirt on it.

Chicago -1.5 over SEATTLE

Is this a typo? Seneca Wallace against a rejuvinated Bears D? Vegas must think Cutler is going to wilt on the road again. And yeah, Seattle is a tough place to play. Just not without Hasselback. In other Seattle news, how sweet is Backspacer?

CINCINNATI +4 over Pittsburgh

I think it was the BS Report where Cousin Sal pointed out that the least reliable part of the Bengals nowadays is Carson Palmer. I’m absolutely a believer in that D. And they’ll be amped, especially since Hines Ward is talkin’ jive about knocking out Keith Rivers, who’s back by the way. These Bengals play tight games.

Denver +1 over OAKLAND

No no… Just no. It’s true Denver’s wins are over the Ohio Experience. But there’s no way you can give away points behind JaMarcus Russell. At what point does he eclipse Ryan Leaf as the biggest quarterback bust of all time? He’s certainly the least talented number one pick of the last ten years. Yeah, it was Manning or Leaf, but the ’07 draft had Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Joe Thomas, Patrick Willis, and Darrelle Revis, who can all be called the best player on their team by FAR. And I have to GIVE POINTS?!? Jesus, the Broncos are going to be 3-0…

SAN DIEGO -6 over Miami

Three observations about the Chargers from my in-person vantage point last weekend: 1) Philip Rivers complains like a Duke point guard from Argentina. I mean, he’s six years old. 2) It is hot as all hell in San Diego this time of year and the jersey color will absolutely matter. 3) The Chargers are so much better with Sproles than Tomlinson that they may have someone pour detergent into his cereal like the crazy mom in Sixth Sense. Dolphins don’t have the hosses to outscore them.

ARIZONA –2.5 over Indianapolis

Holy crap, I’m going to regret this one too. Yeah, the Colts have Peyton Manning. But the Cardinals used to be money in the bank at home. Plus, the Colts don’t have the defensive forces to slow down Kurt Warner. Damn it. I’m angry about this one too.

Carolina +9 over DALLAS

NINE POINTS?!?! Nine? Oh no. No no no. Nope. Negative. Negatory, good buddy. Negatory. Yes, I think they should play So I Married an Axe Murderer on the JerryTube during the game.