There’s a rule in the NFL: every season, half of last year’s playoff teams will be replaced by non-playoff teams from the year before. This year was no different, with the Eagles, Falcons, Vikings, Cardinals, Ravens, and Dolphins replacing the Redskins, Bucs, Packers, Seahawks, Pats and Jags. You can set your watch by it. We know for certain that six of the teams currently in will not be in next year. That’s why the NFL is better than Major League Baseball.

What made this season’s field a little stranger was the insane turnaround for three teams led by rookie coaches (and, in two of those cases, rookie quarterbacks). We’ll reserve a playoff spot for the Patriots, who should absolutely be back. But outside of that, which teams could make the same leap as Baltimore, Atlanta, and Miami in ‘09?

You need to have a lot going in your favor to do this. For one thing, you need to have a number of smart veterans who can buy into a new coaching philosophy. You also need to have a stellar draft, meaning you have to be lucky AND good. Jake Long, Matt Ryan, and Joe Flacco were all first rounders, meaning their personnel guys thought they were future pro-bowlers, but no one thought they would be THIS good THIS early. You also need to take advantage of a fourth place schedule; while the league isn’t consistent enough to guarantee a set of cupcakes for a bad team (who is probably a cupcake in their own right), Baltimore, Miami, and Atlanta were all in the four spot last season. So let’s start there. Here are the eight bottom feeders, ranked by the chance they’ll be next year’s world beaters.

8. Detroit Lions (0-16) - They play in a weaker division, but are so far away from contending it’s ridiculous. Plus, the veterans that stick around will still have the sour taste of losing every single game in 2008. It also doesn’t help that the team always loses ten games more than Jon Kitna annually predicts.

7. Washington Redskins (8-8) - Probably the most talented team on this list, the Skins have a few problems. The first is that the NFC East has two very stable franchises in it (Philly, NYG) and the Skins aren’t that. The second is that all of the players are already practicing quitting on Jim Zorn. The third is that rebuilt teams are made in the draft and Dan Snyder doesn’t know when that is. You’d think he’d remember getting the best player on his team (LaRon Landry) that way, but he put that reminder on the top shelf.

6. Cleveland Browns (4-12) - Should be a chic pick to bounce back, especially if Randy Lerner’s pipe dreams about Bill Cowher (unlikely) or Scott Pioli (really likely) come true. Plus, they have a ton of offensive talent. The problem is that they may retain Romeo Crennel to run the defense, which was horrifyingly bad. They’re also in a division that features three quarterbacks with big arms, and the Browns don’t carry corners on their roster.

5. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11) - Another possibility because their season was submarined by injuries (losing both guards in Week One doesn’t usually work out). The trouble is that next season will determine whether the ‘07 edition or ‘08 edition of David Garrard is the actual one (psst…it’s the latter). They’re also by far the fourth best team in a loaded division. 

4. Buffalo Bills (7-9) - The Patriots are guaranteed to bounce back and the Bills might can their coach. But they have some really solid components on their team; that run at the beginning wasn’t a fluke. If the Bills can get a little bit more help on offense from a lineman or two, they could be a really tough out. Their coach stinks, so that part will have to get resolved.

3. St. Louis Rams (2-14) - Yes, they look like a long-shot. But the pieces are in place for a decent coach (Jim Schwartz is the front-runner) to come in and make a decent team out of it. Schwartz will put in a power running game with Steven Jackson and find ways for Torry Holt and Marc Bulger to at least pretend to be pro bowlers. Any bit of defensive production could mean a wild card in this awful division. 

2. New Orleans Saints (8-8) - Simple: Drew Brees is awesome, and this was the first year since the realignment that the last place finisher in the NFC South didn’t win it the next season (the Falcons still made the playoffs)

1. Kansas City Chiefs (2-14) - Herm Edwards is a bad coach and Tyler Thigpen isn’t the answer. But every now and then, he looked like the answer, and that’s because there are some good, young components in place. The Chiefs add either a franchise quarterback (probably Sam Bradford) or another lineman (Andre Smith) in the draft and go find some Chad Pennington-esque starter (Jeff Garcia may be available…possibly they get in on the Matt Cassel rush…). Add in the fact that the AFC West is ripe for the taking, and the Chiefs could be relevant again. 

If only the Royals could say the same. 

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